ChatGPT boosts e-commerce traffic but lags in sales conversion, study finds

A new academic study suggests that while ChatGPT is emerging as a growing source of traffic for online retailers, it has yet to match traditional marketing channels in driving actual sales.

The paper — authored by researchers Maximilian Kaiser of the University of Hamburg and Christian Schulze of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management — analyzed a year’s worth of first-party data from 973 e-commerce websites generating a combined $20 billion in annual revenue. The findings show that ChatGPT referrals convert significantly worse than traffic from search engines, email campaigns, and affiliate links, though performance is improving over time.

Across more than 50,000 ChatGPT-driven transactions compared to 164 million from other channels, ChatGPT’s conversion rate and revenue per session trailed all but paid social media. The researchers attribute this to limited user trust in AI-generated recommendations and the relative novelty of using conversational models for shopping decisions.

“People don’t use ChatGPT as the last step before purchase,” Schulze explained, noting that users often verify recommendations on external sites before completing a transaction.

Despite the weak conversion rates, ChatGPT accounted for more than 90% of all large language model (LLM)–related e-commerce traffic, far outpacing other AI assistants such as Gemini and Perplexity. However, the study found that ChatGPT’s total traffic remains marginal — roughly 200 times smaller than Google’s organic search and representing less than 0.2% of overall visits across the dataset.

Over the 12-month observation period, conversion rates from ChatGPT referrals steadily improved, suggesting that users are gradually becoming more comfortable making purchasing decisions through AI interfaces. The paper projects that ChatGPT’s performance will continue to narrow the gap with organic search, though full parity remains unlikely within the next year.

The authors also highlight that ChatGPT visitors tend to engage more deeply with sites — showing lower bounce rates and longer session durations — implying interest and intent even if transactions are deferred.

Conversion rates could rise as OpenAI rolls out its Instant Checkout feature, which enables users to buy products directly within ChatGPT. The system is currently being piloted with Etsy sellers and is expected to expand to Shopify and Walmart merchants.

Still, researchers caution that the success of in-chat commerce depends on overcoming user hesitation around payment security and data privacy. “If people don’t trust ChatGPT yet, they’ll still leave the platform to make a purchase elsewhere,” Schulze said.