WPP Media lowers 2025 global ad spend forecast to 6% amid trade and tech shifts

The global advertising market is entering a transitional phase in 2025, with shifting political and technological dynamics prompting a significant reassessment of industry forecasts. WPP Media, formerly GroupM, has released its midyear ad spend report, revising its earlier 2025 growth projection downward from 7.7% to 6.0%, placing anticipated global ad revenue at $1.08 trillion.

While geopolitical developments—particularly the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs—have forced budget realignments, digital acceleration and the surge in user-generated content (UGC) are redrawing the boundaries of content monetization and platform influence.

WPP Media’s updated “This Year Next Year” forecast reflects mounting pressure from protectionist policies and a fragmenting global trade environment. The anticipated 1.7% downgrade in growth, while not catastrophic, suggests growing advertiser caution.

Markets like the U.S. and China remain particularly vulnerable due to ongoing tariff tensions. WPP Media now expects U.S. ad spend to grow 5.6% this year—down from 7%—and China to increase 6.8%. Ad dollars are shifting accordingly: brands such as Temu and Shein have begun reallocating spend from North America to European markets, notably the UK and Germany.

Despite the turbulence, WPP Media sees no immediate global recession risk but notes that further escalation in trade restrictions could shift that outlook rapidly.

For the first time, WPP Media forecasts that UGC will generate more ad revenue than professionally produced content in 2025. Platforms like TikTok, YouTube, Kuaishou, and Instagram Reels are driving this shift, collectively accounting for more than half of content-driven ad revenue.

WPP Media estimates that creator-generated ad revenue will hit $184.9 billion in 2025—up 20% year over year—and will more than double by 2030 to $376.6 billion. The blurred distinction between amateur and professional content is shaping new advertiser strategies, particularly as AI-generated tools lower the barrier to content creation.

However, the rise of UGC and generative AI also introduces new concerns about brand safety and misinformation, areas notably unaddressed in WPP Media’s martech and ad tech projections.

AI’s impact on advertising is extending beyond content creation to consumer engagement and brand operations. According to WPP Media’s industry poll of 60 experts, 66% expect that by 2030, most brand-consumer interactions will be bot-to-bot—AI agents on both sides negotiating purchases and service requests.

This AI-driven evolution could reshape social media, with over half of respondents predicting that platforms will become dominated by AI personas and brand-generated promotional content. Still, 63% of experts believe that, despite these shifts, consumers will continue to engage more with the physical world than virtual environments.

Interestingly, most experts do not believe AI will significantly diminish consumer spending power by 2030, despite rising concerns over automation’s impact on employment—particularly for entry-level white-collar roles.

WPP Media’s report reclassifies advertising under four categories: Content, Commerce, Location, and Intelligence. Retail media remains a growth engine, expected to generate $169.6 billion globally in 2025 and to rise to $252.1 billion by 2030, comprising 18% of all ad revenue.

Other media trends include:

• Digital advertising dominating the landscape, set to comprise 73.2% of global ad revenue in 2025 (rising to 81.6% when including digital extensions).
• Streaming TV to generate $41.8 billion in 2025, with projected growth to $71.9 billion by 2030.
• DOOH now makes up 41% of the $52 billion out-of-home market.
• Print continues to contract, down 3.1% to $45.5 billion.
• Audio advertising stagnates at $26.5 billion, with terrestrial radio in decline.

Search advertising, classified under “Intelligence,” is set to grow 7.3% to reach $226.2 billion this year.

Despite slowing growth, all major ad markets are still projected to expand in 2025. Brazil and India lead with double- and high-single-digit growth, while the U.S. continues to anchor the market with $404.7 billion in projected spend. China follows with $211.6 billion, and the UK rounds out the top three at $55 billion.

Top 5 Markets by 2025 Ad Spend:

1. United States – $404.7B (+5.6%)
2. China – $211.6B (+6.8%)
3. United Kingdom – $55.0B (+6.5%)
4. Japan – $50.5B (+4.0%)
5. Germany – $38.0B (+5.5%)