WARC raises global ad spend forecast as social media investment surges

The World Advertising Research Center (WARC) has upgraded its 2025 global ad spend forecast following a sharp rise in social media advertising during the second quarter.

Ad spending on social platforms climbed 20.2% in Q2, far surpassing earlier projections of 12.4% growth. The increase added an estimated $4.9 billion in value to the market. Retailers drove much of the surge, with spending concentrated on Instagram, which grew 18.8%, and TikTok, which jumped 56.8%. WARC notes that the spike was partly fueled by brands seeking to build inventory ahead of potential tariff changes.

As a result, global ad spending is now expected to rise 7.4% year over year in 2025, reaching $1.17 trillion. This marks a 1.2 percentage point upgrade from WARC’s June outlook and the first upward revision in more than a year. The momentum is projected to continue, with ad spend forecast to expand 8.1% in 2026 to $1.27 trillion.

The data highlights the growing dominance of digital-first platforms. According to WARC, nine out of every ten new ad dollars are now flowing to online-only channels. Social media alone is expected to account for 40.6% of incremental spending this year, followed by search advertising at 22.2% and retail media at 21.5%.

Overall, social media ad spend is forecast to increase 14.9% in 2025, reaching $306.4 billion, or more than a quarter (26.2%) of total global advertising spending. Meta is set to capture the largest share, accounting for around 60% of global social ad spend.

Beyond social platforms, three companies—Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon—are projected to draw over half (55.8%) of all advertising spend outside China, with that figure on pace to exceed 60% by 2030.

Looking further ahead, WARC estimates the global advertising market will nearly double in value compared with 2020, hitting $1.36 trillion by 2027, underscoring the concentration of growth among digital platforms despite wider economic headwinds.

However, not all forecasts share this optimism. WPP Media recently lowered its 2025 global ad spend growth forecast to 6%, down from 7.7%, projecting a total of $1.08 trillion by year-end. The downgrade, outlined here, cites geopolitical uncertainty, shifting trade policies, and cautious marketer sentiment as key factors likely to dampen spending momentum.