Mobile commerce to generate $140.65 billion during the 2024 holiday season

As the holiday season approaches, the ecommerce sector is poised for its most significant surge in growth since 2021, according to eMarketer. With the digital shopping landscape evolving rapidly, holiday ecommerce sales in 2024 are projected to rise by 9.5% year-over-year (YoY), a pace unmatched in the last two years. This robust growth is expected to bring total online sales for November and December to an impressive $266.89 billion, highlighting the continued shift towards online shopping during the holiday season.

The growth in holiday ecommerce is not only about the increase in total sales but also about its expanding share of the overall retail market. In 2024, holiday retail ecommerce is anticipated to account for 19.8% of total holiday retail sales, marking the most significant leap in market share since 2020. This surge underscores the deepening reliance of consumers on digital platforms for their holiday shopping needs, further solidifying ecommerce’s critical role in the retail ecosystem.

A key driver of this ecommerce boom is the rising dominance of mobile shopping. Mobile commerce (mcommerce) is expected to generate $140.65 billion in sales during the 2024 holiday season, reflecting a 13.4% increase YoY. This surge in mobile sales will propel mcommerce to account for over half (52.7%) of all online sales during the holidays, a significant jump from its 2023 penetration rate. This trend indicates that more consumers are turning to their smartphones and tablets for convenient, on-the-go shopping experiences, making mcommerce a central pillar of holiday retail strategies.

Mobile shopping’s impact on overall ecommerce growth is substantial. Retail sales conducted on mobile devices will drive more than three-quarters (75.6%) of the net increase in holiday ecommerce sales this year. This equates to $16.66 billion of the $22.03 billion incremental rise in online sales, underscoring the importance of optimizing mobile shopping experiences to capture this growing market segment.

However, as mcommerce continues to mature, its growth rate is beginning to show signs of deceleration. The projected 13.4% growth in 2024, while still robust, is slightly lower than the 14.5% increase seen in 2023. This suggests that mcommerce is gradually approaching a saturation point, where its growth rate may align more closely with the overall ecommerce market in the coming years.